Week 31: Solving the next billion

The impression that things are not working well for a majority always lingers with glaring manifestations in Africa. Social wellbeing is seemingly in turmoil with social problems (such as poverty and disease) persisting and sometimes growing!

The nascence of a transformative solution for the next billion beckons.

As a mathematician of the 21st Century, I was judiciously schooled in the positivist / post-positivist paradigm which essentially frames there is one and only one truth ( and in a world with a bias of written discourse from a western lens this really meant the accepted truth was the western accepted truth): One way of order - 40 is 40. Gravity makes things fall. Sickness can only be confirmed in the lab. There is only one logical sense of human development and one expression of rational choice (maximize self benefit minimize self loss). There is one destination of human desire (finicky idea of happiness often in a material sense). Subsequently there was one linear path of solving problems across the whole world (with minor adjustments) but by and large one size fits all.

Seen in a Positivist light solving the next billion is seen as fitting the next billion to the set truth.

In the early 1990's the reason given for the lack of a good fit lack of education and awareness - that the critical mass of people for whom basics were not working needed to be 'schooled' of the ways by the minority for whom it worked for. For instance poverty could be attributed to lack of access to credit. Lack of access would be problematized as a lack of awareness of the existence of a banking system and the need to be 'schooled' on the definition of a bank account. It was hypothesized that miracles would unfold thereafter and all will adopt financial services and be included in the financial system and live happily ever after. But that did not happen.

At the turn of the century yet another eureka moment of making the billion fit came. Once again the existing solutions were sacrosanct (no contest that these were ideated and tested from utopia in the eyes of the problem). Now, it was hypothesized, though the billions were aware of the solution, it was often structured out of their reach -so to say that the first step of the ladder was set a bit too high. The job that needed to be done was to restructure the entry conditions so to say - bring it to the right bite size. This birthed Microinsurance, Microfinance, Micro this Micro that, Collateralized mortgage obligations, so that the person could access 1/nth that could fit them to the sacrosanct way. It was prophesied to be the dawn of the new becoming - but turned to an unending dream that never awakens!

It now feels like we are at a watershed moment where we have run out of excuses of why the "sacrosanct way" does not work. There is growing consensus of the need to slow down before we speed up again. To stop flogging the dead horse in some situations. To cogitate. To question the velocity of motion (are we moving in the right direction in the first place?). 

Like every other point of inflection in history, the definitions and paths start off hazy. A better lens to see what this next inflection could be is to ask what principles and values should undergird it?

During a recent brown bag lunch session, Shirish Andhare suggested four elements that need to manifest in solving for the next billion

1. A decentralized view on ideas and knowledge. Ideas can come from anywhere - laterally and bottom - up often have very interesting insights. This deconstructs the pillared nuance of "the way with minor edits."

2. A greater dimension of agency : Beyond mechanical "here is the solution" or even next level of applied skill "What is the problem" (that allows retrofit), Shirish argues that we must dive into "Why are we solving it" and deeply diagnose the person and the context. Spending more time immersed in the problem space interacting with the people in their context not to judge first as a problem but to see the everyday occurrences and ask "why" this?. Magic is likely to happen in the grassroot micro interactions that give voice to the people.

3. A redefinition of innovation not just the birth of a new idea, method or object but in a deeper context of why for the billion as: "The practical implementation of ideas that result in meaningful solutions for man to flourish ... at scale." This brings a value laden lens of demanding the innovation to pass the test to be for the good of man.